Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.417922 0.481925 0.551480 0.632555 0.724330 0.824859 0.943180
2025-09-28 0.300988 0.386455 0.488477 0.618632 0.779604 0.971451 1.216642
2025-10-05 0.246896 0.343194 0.466316 0.633956 0.854734 1.133848 1.511438
2025-10-12 0.216375 0.320985 0.462420 0.665344 0.946280 1.318305 1.844362
2025-10-19 0.189053 0.297165 0.450738 0.681411 1.014900 1.474475 2.149321
2025-10-26 0.165072 0.273656 0.435020 0.687679 1.067454 1.609740 2.433098
2025-11-02 0.143906 0.250799 0.416493 0.686118 1.106165 1.725734 2.695391
2025-11-09 0.124739 0.228071 0.394820 0.676235 1.129649 1.819000 2.928667
2025-11-16 0.108787 0.208238 0.374983 0.666255 1.150604 1.908082 3.159675
2025-11-23 0.093288 0.186883 0.349852 0.644309 1.149248 1.960827 3.335985
2025-11-30 0.089052 0.185239 0.358015 0.678941 1.243218 2.170473 3.773818
2025-12-07 0.077692 0.168585 0.337628 0.661414 1.246682 2.232130 3.974351
2025-12-14 0.067569 0.153124 0.317994 0.643800 1.249396 2.294316 4.183168
2025-12-21 0.059170 0.139969 0.301209 0.629712 1.257119 2.365573 4.412571
2025-12-28 0.055055 0.135232 0.300189 0.645290 1.320029 2.536585 4.824733
2026-01-04 0.052961 0.134604 0.307268 0.677187 1.415765 2.771735 5.363857
2026-01-11 0.049564 0.130523 0.306698 0.693514 1.482619 2.958409 5.826681
2026-01-18 0.045648 0.124644 0.301599 0.699883 1.530152 3.111974 6.237573
2026-01-25 0.041528 0.117637 0.293192 0.698297 1.561266 3.236046 6.600129
2026-02-01 0.037250 0.109571 0.281452 0.688254 1.574025 3.325355 6.901710
2026-02-08 0.033441 0.102116 0.270222 0.678113 1.585479 3.412329 7.203126
2026-02-15 0.029328 0.093166 0.254362 0.655811 1.569000 3.442496 7.395038
2026-02-22 0.028857 0.094252 0.263013 0.691004 1.679768 3.734895 8.120475